A fountain of water… springing… down?

Alternate title: I didn’t realize I was thirsty…

Alternative Alternate title: Even when filled with living water, I still need to drink dihydrogen monoxide.

Although I’ve snarked before on the dangers of DHMO, the truth is two hydrogen atoms combined with one oxygen atom is the most important element to those that are living (plant AND animal).  [Sidebar: arsenic? really?After my frustrations of the last week of Novemeber, I immediately enacted my plan of not over eating and drinking MOAR WATER!  The downside to this strategy, without being too detailed to my gentile readers, is that I am now taking lots of breaks during the day.

But that’s the only downside, everything else is upside. Well upside in the downwards direction. Gravity is confusing, when you’re losing weight.  But I digress.  A couple of pictures. help to tell the story of where I’m going with this:

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That double upwards spike had me seriously stressing. Through all that time I was taking a good food log, and getting in exercise, the day before the first spike I had a 4 mile run (then ate pizza. *facepalm*)  In this time I’ve also added weight routines on off run days, which might be the culprit for some of the weight gain. The old adage muscle weighs more than fat, while technically incorrect, muscle is denser than fat and adding more muscle mass is better for my metabolism, but it’s impossible to put on 6 pounds of muscle (or fat) in a week.  The problem was/is water retention.  The cure, oddly, Drink MOAR water.

SpongeBob Narrator voice: THREE DAYS LATER:

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Woo, thank you Sir Newton for inventing that gravity thing. Although gravity has nothing to do with the above chart, the increase in water intake (and, oddly, urine outtake) has reversed that scary trend in just four days.  People, if you’re breathing, drink water!  Especially when the heater starts working, and dries everything out… (Note: for further research weight loss bubbles as a result of colder temperatures?)

The other part of my last post, was the long dissertation on trend lines, and confusing math.  Let my break it down, The daily weigh-in numbers can act as either anchors or buoy to the trend line.  A weigh-in number below the current trend will drag it down, how much depends on how ‘heavy’ the weight (the more below the line, the “heavier” it is) and will pull the imagetrend line down. Similarly, a weigh-in number above the line acts as a buoy and lifts the trend up.  So in this chart, blue dots are the daily weigh-in numbers, and the red dots are the daily trend numbers.  Remember all that stressing about the fluctuating numbers on the scale each morning?  Well the trend numbers help with that. (I started using the trend after the scary spike!) If my numbers fluctuate a little up but stay below the trend, that’s good still on track.  If they spike above the trend line, then I’ll need to re-evaluate and make sure all the checklist (exercise, food log, water intake) items are in order.  A bit of freedom.

So, don’t freak out, I’m not stopping this journey train because of some wacky number.  I’m feeling too good about myself, and enjoying myself too much to get too grumpy. I’m just geeking out on the numbers, because that’s what I do. Also, I recognize looking at last post’s money chart, that I was due for a little plateau.  All signals are in the green, Houston.  Let’s light this candle.

Houston We Have A Problem

Alternative title: What’s to keep me from tossing this whole diet thing in the rubbish bin?

Alternative alternative title: Sanity please?!

image So November, what happened between us, we started out so promising (after that mean old Halloween time) then we blew up at the end.  Was I bragging too much?  Did my obsession with trying to get to my goal a bit too obsessive?  Obviously something went wrong, the daily weigh-ins might have been too confusing, frustrating, obsessive.  I don’t want to be too negative on you, November, after all I am now fitting comfortably in size 44 pants (down 4 inches!), and I played Thanksgiving Football without injury, and that Thanksgiving picture looks mighty fine!

But like when astronauts calling in from troubled missions to Houston in mid flight, I need to make some adjustments and course corrections.  I need to keep this bus driving downhill, so with the encouragement of a job well done so far, lets keep our eyes on the prize and set some goals.

The first is: Stop eating too much! Looking at the charts, my calories again have bubbled up over 2500.  I need to keep them right at that mark, even on my hard exercising days when I think it’s an excuse to indulge, I’m cheating myself on the longer term.

The second is: Start drinking. Drinking water I mean, jeesh internet, I’m not a lush!  I need to drink enough each day, and then a little more.  I think I was attacked by a bit of dehydration near the end of the month, be it from too much pepperoni (see my facebook photo album), allergies, or just not drinking enough.  So I need to drink 5-6 of my 20 ounce water bottle a day (so says About.com)

Finally, I need to chill out on the celebration/pity parties after each morning weigh-in.  I need a plan, something to make me realize that while the numbers fluctuate, they are going in the right direction.  Enter some things I found in The Hacker’s Diet from a link in the LoseIt.com forums.

In the chapter “Signal and Noise” the book talks about moving averages and trends.  Which is something I understand fairly well, especially when looking at data (like weight data) that fluctuates regularly.  But the numbers I record in LoseIt.com don’t automatically smooth, there is some smoothing in the longer term charts (3 months and above) but that doesn’t really help in the 4 weeks curve that just shows raw data, nor the weekly view that shows 7 days of data.  The timing of when the week starts can be troublesome too, if it hits on a peak or a valley you can totally get the wrong message.

So, anyways, back to smoothing, and trend lines.  I made myself a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet using the data exported from the 1 year Weight Trend chart at LoseIt.com.  Now the first 3 months are my starting weight, so I removed them, the next 7 months are weekly measures, that have some value in the long term, but what I’m really interested in is the last 30 or so days of daily measurements.  From the Hacker’s Diet I used the formula for a “exponentially smoothed moving average with 10% smoothing” which is basically yesterday’s trend subtracted by today’s weight multiplied by one tenth then adding that result back to yesterday’s trend to get today’s trend. (or the excel formula =(-(Cn-Bn-1)*0.1)+Cn where weights are in column B and trends are in column C.

image When graphed you get a chart like above, the left side of that chart shows my weight and trend measurements for the month of November.  The right side of the chart is my projection or weight loss based on losing 0.30 pounds per day, or a little over 2 pounds for the month of December. Realistically, what I want is to have a strong majority of blue data points below the red data points for the rest of the year.  If I do that, I’ll make my goal of getting below 300 pounds (by the TREND line) before the annual lifting of the sparkling cider plastic glass.  Which would totally rock.

And so as to not end on a downer, I extended that trend-line to the data for my entire journey, and I’ve been here before, and the direction has always been in the correct direction.  Click more for the money chart.

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Sometimes I do eat – Food Porn and I’ve lost almost 40 pounds

imageThe nanny-like Center for Science in the Public Interest has disclosed this years Xtreme Eating 2010 list.  This year they’ve aimed there laser-like sensationalistic dietary probes at the following fine dining institues:

  • Five Guys Burger and Fries
  • Cheesecake Factory
  • California Pizza Factory
  • P. F. Chang’s
  • Outback Steakhouse
  • Chevy’s Tex Mex
  • Bob Evan’s

With the surprising shocker that these houses of hash have menu items that are full of calorie laden entrees.  I’m shocked, shocked… actually, I’m not… and really, CSPI you are a bunch of amateur hacks! Have you never seen an episode of Man versus Food, or Diners, Drive-Ins and Dives?  Them there shows can really show you how to stack on the calories!

Now, if you haven’t been paying attention, I’ve been on a weight-loss journey for the past 8 months (and probably for another 8 months, and possibly even beyond that!) and while staying within my calorie goals have managed to dine rather successfully at the aforementioned eating establishments (and others too!).

Five Guys isn’t too bad, hold the cheese, share the small fries with my son, and I’m out the door with about 900 calories (not to say that pre-diet I would scarf down 2000 calories with hardly batting an eye).  Logging my calories has opened my eyes to what I used to eat, and I’m much happier keeping within the boundaries of my calorie counting way.

I will say I don’t like eating at Cheesecake Factory because they don’t publish nutritional information either on their website, or in their menus.  To earn my business, restaurants should provide nutritional information in an easy to understand manner.  The Lose It! application has a good selection of Restaurants that do provide their menus nutritional information publically.  Which Five Guys Burgers and Fries does, even though they top the list of the CSPI’s bad boy’s of food, I’m not thinking a lot of people go to Five Guys for their lighter fare.  It’s a hamburger joint for cripes sake. 

The key, in my journey, is to know what I’m going to eat, and even plan my restaurant visit before I get there, knowing that I might eat a lighter lunch, or add a few more minutes at the gym to keep on track.  And sometimes, the more rare the better, it’s okay to let loose and get a belt-buster, and then get back on track the next day.  No guilt, steady progress, keep moving.

Motivation through number crunching…

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Daily Weight Measurements - Last 4 weeks

The last time we spoke, I said I was going to start an experiment of daily weight measurements.  The chart to the right show the results of that experiment.  I wish I could attach a comment of my thoughts at the moment my blurry morning eyes register the blue glow of each mornings revelation.  I’m fairly certain that it would reflect a rollercoaster of emotions followed by some exhortations like: stick with the plan, weight fluctuates, stupid scale, shouldn’t have had that Halloween candy – jerk, etc.  Still you can see the regression the whole counting calories while exercising thing actually works.

Not that I ever intellectually doubted the calculus of calories in – calories out = change in weight.  Emotionally though, I think I’ve been in the SKEPTIC category for many of the past years.  But that roller-coaster curve is hard to deal with day in and day out.  Especially the day after Halloween uptick, followed by the only two-day plateau (actually, I was unable to weigh-in that day as I was out of town, it could’ve been worse!)

Still I want a little more feedback, a better understanding of the trends. I know it’s an up and down thing, and as much as I’d like weight loss journey to be a steady slide to the bottom, ending with a asymptotic slope continually approaching my ideal weight, I know that won’t be the case.  So how can I find motivation in my daily journey of weighing in, counting calories, and compiling daily mile posts.  Back to Excel and the numbers that make up that curve.

duration lbs per day lbs per week
last 4 wks 0.20 1.45
last 3 mos 0.13 0.93
last 6 mos 0.12 0.85
from start 0.16 1.15

LoseIt.com has a great little feature that lets you download the data that goes into displaying that chart.  So let’s do a little linear regression or rough averaging, or what not.  So what I did was take the most current weight, and subtract it from the least current for each time period. I then averaged that for the number of days in the time period to get lbs per day.  I simply multiplied that number by seven to get lbs per week.

So while my numbers aren’t exactly in The Biggest Loser territory, they are at least consistent, and I’m encouraged that since I’ve started my daily weigh-in experiment, I’ve beaten my historical average by a comfortable margin (even WITH Halloween! ha! take that spiritual realm!).  I’m also glad to see that from the beginning of my journey, I’ve averaged a little over a pound per week in shedding the pounds.  I’m hoping to meet my initial goal of 299 by the end of the month, then put a stake in the ground for the next goal.  Hitting the goal before Thanksgiving is my prime directive at the moment, don’t want to delay that goal into the Christmas season, or heaven’s forbid the new year!

Putting the best chart… after the fold

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Trends … Trends … Trends

Alternative title, garbage in – garbage out.  Or — Hey lookie, I think this might need to be adjusted.

Using LoseIt.com the over the last three months has enabled me to start spotting trends.  In my last diet number geek post, I lamented that might weight loss had hit a plateau and while still losing I wasn’t losing as quickly as I had.  I had changed systems from WeightWatchers to LoseIt, and had gone astray. The next three charts (from loseit.com) makes my point.

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A balanced diet is important … when watching TV

This past week was the official start of the season for new shows, and with this week out of the way, I can focus a post on what I’m watching and why.  I’ll be mixing in new shows with old standbys, and also some must see shows that aren’t on the traditional schedule.  Just to be creative, which I’m not, I’m putting them into food groups, to help with people that might be watching TV unhealthily, relying on too much junk food to get you through the week.

Junk Food – guilty pleasures

Hellcats – Fun and light show, that, as Damon Lindelof tweeted, is surprisingly not about Hell or Cats.  This cheerleader drama should be right up my teenaged daughters alley, but alas, they’re not interested.  So I’ll keep up with the show to bring them up to speed on the haps of Sharpay (Ashlee Tisdale) and Aly.  In my house the TV spends a lot time on Nick and Disney, and it seems that TheCW is trying to pull those younger viewers in by grabbing the ex The Suite Life and Phil of the future stars.  It’s a teen soap, sure, but it’s on TheCW so won’t be early on the cancel list.

The Big Bang Theory – Used to be a Monday night standard, but shifting it to Thursday (probably a good move, since Monday is being onslaught with new shows) for me makes it a Friday night watch.  Love the characters and the geek humor.  One sad aside from the premiere episode is there seems to be a trend at putting really inappropriate sexual innuendos on at 7PM by CBS, which makes watching this show with my young sons very much awk.ward.  Or maybe I’m getting to be too old and cranky, but speaking of …

How I Met Your Mother – This show about some dude in 2030 telling his teenage kids a long-winded tale about how he met their mother, has always had a bit of the innuendo.  Barney Stinson being the main culprit, which is awesome, of course.  But this first episode was a bit over the top, 7PM Central is a bit early to get the ‘tent in the shorts’ jokes.  I might not have noticed it as much in the past as I time-shifted the show til after the kids went to bed.  I love this show, but it might have to go back to the time-shifted DVR slot for. the. sake. of the children.

Protein – Good meaty dramas

Rubicon – This AMC drama is about 9 episodes into it’s run, sharing Sunday night AMC slow with Mad Men, and it’s gaining strength as the show is connecting many of the crumbs that got dropped early.  The slow place makes it intriguing to watch, not much action, but lots of ‘where are they taking this’ questions get answered in unexpected ways.  I’d recommend going back and finding some good recaps before diving in, or finding the episodes to watch, since this is certainly not a procedural.  I love the mind twisting goodness, and the characters are getting fleshed out, as slowly as the plot.  A show that makes you think, I love that.

Mad Men – THE reason to turn on the TV on Sunday nights for me (not that it’s ever off very long) is to figure out how Don Draper is coping with his life.  The last few episodes either has Don bouncing off his whiskey soaked bottom, or a false bounce with the promise of a deeper crash coming.  Last week, Don lost his anchor, as Miss Blankenship passed on, and daughter Sally has a rebellious streak that we all know Betty won’t be able to handle.  So Don’s new sobriety is tenuously handing on the ledge of Cooper, Sterling, Draper & Pryce’s window ledge, lets see how he handles it.

Terriers – It’s set in Ocean City (small beach suburb of San Diego) and has nothing to do with a canine club full of pedigreed terriers.  Instead it’s following the gritty lives of an ex-cop Hank, played wonderfully by Donal Logue (Life), and his partner Britt, as they start a fledgling Private Investigation business.  They are both all sorts of messed up, but another slow-burn season long arc is unwinding as their partnership begins to jell. It’s on the FX, so some episodes (like this last one) can get the parental warning sign, so keep this one on your DVR and enjoy it after the kids hit the hay.

Castle – This is just a delightful show, I love love love Nathan Fillion and it’s great to see him get a good breakout show.  That said, it’s good because of the rest of the cast, a core family for Rick, and a caring group of cops that keeps Castle grounded as he researches his next novel.  Simmering relationship drama is still fresh and doesn’t feel teased and overdone yet (see Bones).  It’s a procedural, but so much fun that it’s on my must see list.

Grey’s Anatomy – This is weekly date night TV for me. If there is only one show I’ll actually watch on my very busy Thursday night, it’s Grey’s, with my wife, and enjoy it every week.  Characters are still fun and engaging, and the stories are consistently solid.  Good stuff to watch with my favorite person in the world.

The rest are below the fold.

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Random Catchups

I know, I know, I’ve been ignoring my blog, during this last final season of madness.

I’m sorry.  To the four people that read this blog, I know, I’ve let you down.

But maybe I’ll turn it around and start my random digressions (it might be another di-word) as there are plenty of good things going on to write about.

Like how I started WeightWatchers March 30,2010 and have lost 10.8 pounds as of last week. 

Or, like how I started walking, with the intent to jog. I’ve walked/jogged/treadmilled 24 miles in the last two months.

I’m still Editor-in-Chief-ing at LOSTblog, but have a bunch of awesome helpers to keep the blog fresh, they want to do a full series re-watch, so I’ll be part of that, but not every episode.

I’ve got 9+ months of recovery under my belt, with the end in sight of my Celebrate Recovery step study that’s been really helpful in my examining my life, my emotions and a fruitful productive output for my sometimes self-destructive side.

So I have some boring things to write about, that I must tell the internet.  So stay tuned!

LOST Answers Serenity Prayer

I understand, I do.  You want answers, and you think that you’re not getting them.  You’ve waited all this time, and you think your entitled.  But let me put a chink into the denial that is camouflaging your LOST answers addiction.  The answers you want (or that I want) don’t matter to the majority of the main characters. 

Like who got shot in the canoe, our LOSTies flashed in and out of the time frame so fast, they had no idea who was shooting at them, or who they shot.  So, while it would be cool to pull a LOSTie loop and have Juliet gun down Sawyer, it just isn’t important to the remaining LOSTies who was in the canoe.  Chalk it up to Widmore goons and be done with it, for you own good.

While you let the denial fade over your answers addiction, here is a modified Serenity prayer just for you.

Damon and Carlton (or your own higher power) grant me the Serenity
to accept the answers that you have written
the courage to develop some answers of my own
and the wisdom to know the difference.

Watching one episode at a time
Enjoying on scene at a time
Accepting character arcs as their pathway to peace
Taking, as all fans have, this wonderful show
as it is, not as I would have it
Trusting that the show will be incredible
if I surrender to it’s awesomeness
That I may be reasonably happy in this season
and supremely happy with rewatches of the DVDs
forever in the future.

Namaste

Shamelessly reimagined from this

originally posted at LOSTblog

Pre-Hash: Everybody Loves Hurley

Woo! It’s Hugo’s day to shine.  He’s had a lot of background scenes this season, playing Jacob’s lackey and has been part of both Jack’s and Richard’s epiphanies, so hopefully we’ll get a lot more motion along these lines in the island timeline.  The purpose of these prehash post, though is to go back and remember earlier times, to help make the sideways differences pop a bit more visibly. So I’m pushing the way back button, and scrolling to season one and hitting The Numbers, perusing Exodus (focusing on pt 3) and then Season Two’s epic Everyone Hates Hurley as well as Dave. 

Hugo “Hurley” Reyes, lives with his mother Carmen, who desperately wants Hugo (she never calls him Hurley – always Hugo) to get a life, more importantly a lady.  Hugo, however, wants to sit at home, channel surf and have a bucket of Mr. Cluck’s Fried Chicken, while hoping that he might have a bit of privacy.  This all changes when the numbers that he learned while at the Santa Rosa Mental Health from a patient named Lenny. 

See Hugo, at some point was the 23rd person to walk on a desk that was built to hold 8 people.  It collapsed, and Hugo was sure that it was because of his excess weight.  Hugo was fat because he’d been using food to comfort himself ever since his father, David, left for Las Vegas 17 years earlier, last thing he gave little Hugo was a Nestle Crunch bad that Carmen forbade.

All that tragedy landed Hugo in the Santa Rosa Mental Health Institute, under the care of Dr. Brooks. In Santa Rosa, Hugo’s constant companion was a man named Dave (there are a few other David’s in the LOST-verse, Jack’s sideways son, Libby’s dead husband, as well as Hugo’s absent father).  The only problem is that Dave wasn’t real, consider Dave as more of a balding Harvey, a pooka. Once Hugo, under the guidance of Dr. Brooks, determined that Dave wasn’t real, he made a real breakthrough, was released from the hospital, moved in with his mother, and got a job at Mr Cluck’s Chicken Shack.

It’s after this that we reconnect with Hugo, he’s watching the TV while enjoying a Mr. Cluck’s bucket of chicken when the lottery comes on and reads the number’s that were burned into his brain by Lenny.  Hugo is a bit afraid of the change, and doesn’t tell anyone for a couple of days.  The knowledge of his financial security does change his outlook, as he realizes that he no longer needs to work for that douche Randy, and quits his job.  In a fit of solidarity, Hugo’s friend Johnny also quits the Mr. Cluck’s gig, and they start on a LOST version of Hugo Reyes’ Day Off.  First stop, record shop, where Hugo tries on some new headphones, and tries on asking Starla the shop assistant out on date to a Hold Steady concert.  Next stop is collecting garden gnomes to then arrange on Randy Nation’s lawn spelling out “CLUCK YOU!” They stop to refill the van at a convenience store, but that where the story changes.  The clerk (who’s also dressed up in the Mr. Cluck’s chicken costume in Hurley’s dream in the swan hatch’s storage room) recognizes Hugo as the big lottery winner.

Winning the lottery is where Hugo’s life changes again.  He has a press conference where he introduced his whole family, including his grandfather Tito.  Sad part is that Tito drops dead from a heart attack.  Hugo’s brother’s girlfriend leaves him for another woman.  The priest residing over Tito’s funeral gets struck by lightning. Weird.  Hugo buys his mother a house, and while surprising her with the new purchase some things happen 1) Carmen doesn’t surprises. 2) Carmen twists her ankle. 3) The house catches on fire. 4) Hugo gets arrested on suspicion of being a drug dealer. (Sure — it had nothing to do with the bright yellow Hummer, loud music and red bandana he’d given his mom to blindfold herself.)

All this misfortune has Hugo thinking the numbers are cursed.  His financial advisor, Ken, doesn’t think so, after all, Hugo is now the owner of a box company in Tustin.  His sneaker company in Canada was over-insured, so even though the fire destroyed his operation (and killed 8 people) he still netted a windfall of more cash.  Surely, Hugo isn’t cursed (cue man falling past Ken’s window.)

Hugo buy’s Mr. Clucks in an attempt to change his luck, only to have a meteorite destroy the franchise and kill Tricia Tanaka.  Hugo’s ready to get rid of the numbers’ curse.  His father, David, returning to his life is the last straw.  Hugo heads to Austrailia to purge the numbers from his life, he needs to visit Sam Toomey, Lenny’s partner and find out what’s up.  Well, Sam’s dead, but Hugo gets to visit with Martha, Sam’s one-legged widow.  Sam killed himself because he thought the numbers were cursed.  Martha saw things differently, and thought, despite her loosing her leg in a freak accident after Sam used the money to win a count the beans in the jar contest, that Sam was the luckiest man alive.

The last part of Hugo pre-crash, is the series of unfortunate events that almost had him missing the Oceanic flight and missing his mother’s birthday party.  First his alarm doesn’t go off, because the socket shorted out (with a black smoke scorched wall).  He has to take the stairs because the elevator is stuffed.  His car engine coughs, stutters and dies and he has to walk to the terminal.  He has to buy a second seat to get on the plane. Is late but can’t cut through the excessively long security line.  He pays an old dude to steal use his electric cart, and arrives at the gate to have the airway door close in his face.  Luckily, Hugo uses his charm to convince the gate agent to open the gate and let him on the plane.

Lucky Hurley.

See Hurley thinks he’s unlucky, but really, he is one of the luckiest people in the world.  Hurley is also one of the worst liars, he simply sucks at it.  Hugo also thought it was unlucky, unfortunate, that he has an uncanny super power of being able to talk to the dead.  That is until he was touched by Jacob in a cab, and told that talking to the dead is an incredible gift.  It certainly has come in handy in Season 6, as Hurley has been a translator to the spiritual guides that helped Jack come to grips with his past, and Richard to entrust the true love of his long dead wife.

What do you think will happen tonight? Are you psyched? Leave us your thoughts in the comments.

Cheers.

Hail of bullet points from rewatching:

  • Hugo’s grandpa Tito, worked for 52 years.
  • Hugo’s Mom doesn’t like surprises.
  • 8 people died in the in fire in his Canadian shoe factory. 
  • Hurley is spry.
  • Lenny loves playing Connect 4 while chanting the numbers.
  • Lenny’s comments after Hurley told him he played the numbers: You used those numbers play the lottery?  You shouldn’t have done that, you’ve opened the box! Shouldn’t have used the numbers, it doesn’t stop. You have to get away from those numbers! It doesn’t stop.
  • When they come upon a rickety bridge on the way to Rousseau’s to find batteries for the Raft. Jack: Never mentioned anything about a bridge.  Sayid: I’ve never saw this before.  Lucky Hurley made it across, little Charlie didn’t. 
  • Hugo is often used as a greek chorus speaking for the audience, and to the audience, cluing us into the narrative of the story.  Except when the show features Hurley’s story, he’s much less in that role, and it switches often to Sawyer, Miles or Charlie.
  • Hugo brought hope to the castaways when he found the old Dharma van, and with the help of Sawyer, Jin and Charlie got it running again.  Key line while convincing Charlie to join him: Look, I don’t know about you, but things have really sucked for me lately and I could use a victory. So let’s get one, dude. Let’s get this car started. Let’s look death in the face and say, "whatever, man." Let’s make our own luck. What do you say?